Renewable energy set to lead the charge—but is the fossil fuel era nearing its end?

According to IEA forecasts, renewables will drive 80% of new electricty generation capacity by 2030. This projection is grounded in robust investments in solar and wind technologies, significant cost reductions, and supportive global policies that are accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels. As clean energy becomes increasingly competitive, these trends not only enhance energy security but also play a critical role in global decarbonization efforts, marking a pivotal transformation in our energy landscape.

BUT, electricity is not the only form of energy used today. While we might think we are now surrounded by electricity in this digital era, electricity is a secondary energy, meaning that it relies on other forms of energy for its production, i.e. primary energy. Our society currently still heavily relies on fossil fuel. As reported by IEA, the world is still energised by oil, natural gas, and coal. The share of clean energies, such as renewables and nuclear, are increasing but they still hold a very minor share on the global energy mix.

'How can this be' you might ask? You might have heard by the enthusiastic news of new solar power plants or wind turbines being developed somewhere, or by the electric vehice (EV) hype that's been going on recently. But those technologies don't come out of thin air. They are produced. And whenever something is produced, natural resources are extracted and processed. Take the EV batteries for example, which is made from minerals such as lithium, copper, nickel, and cobalt. These minerals are extracted from multiple points globally, smelted - which is already highly carbon and energy intensive on its own - and then shippped to factories to be turned into batteries in other part of the globally. Imagine the fuel needed to ship those minerals, and those are not renewable fuels being used. Same thing for wind turbine or solar PV. They need minerals in their production.

So the answer to the question in the title is NO. The fossil fuel era is nowhere near its end, at least not with the current progression. In fact, we may (ironically) need more fossil fuel to transition away from fossil fuel. In addition, we might also end up extracting more resources in the end to completely eliminate fossil fuel from our energy mix. Sounds a bit counterproductive if you ask me.

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